Fantasy Baseball Tune Up – First NFBC Style Mock Draft

I signed up for Mock Draft Central last week to start getting some practice for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. It’s very easy to use and there are a lot of draft options so you should find something that matches your fantasy baseball league. I did have the auto draft on accidentally several times so it messed up my overall strategy but I was just shooting for a good look at the first few rounds anyway. Following the NFBC format this was a 15 team draft, 23 rounds and I was picking out of the 10 hole.

1) Carl Crawford, OF – I would have slept well last night knowing I got him, 2 sick kids had other plans for me
2) Ichiro Suzuki, OF – it was between him or Carlos Lee, I was hesitant to go with Ichiro since I already had some wheels in Crawford, but check out the next pick
3) Adam Dunn, OF – match his power with Ichiro’s average and you end up with 2 pretty sick, balanced players
4) Joe Nathan, RP – great closer at a good spot
5) Vernon Wells, OF – getting a little OF happy but he should bounce back and if he does it’s like getting Carlos Lee on the cheap
6) Jose Valverde, RP – this was an auto draft error on my part, I’ll take it
7) Billy Wagner, RP – déjà vu all over again, see this time I figured out that I was on auto draft, no one needs 3 closers in the first 7 rounds of the NFBC, but should make things interesting
8) Tim Lincecum, SP – I’d like a little more experience in my #1 starter, but 200 Ks is 200 Ks
9) Chien-ming Wang, SP – could push 20 wins and with the heat he throws I expect the K rate to rise
10) Yovani Gallardo, SP – I had him and Lincecum real close so Gallardo 2 rounds later is pretty sweet, still overall 3 young starters has me a little nervous
11) Johnny Peralta, SS – a little early for him but I needed some power at a non-OF spot
12) Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C – for a league that requires 2 catchers this is a nice pick, could crack 20 HRs
13) Mike Jacobs, 1B – another auto draft gaff but fills the need
14) Rocco Baldelli, OF – ditto with auto draft, he does have 20/20 type skills but his health is laughable, I would have liked him a couple of rounds later
15) Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B – he really started to figure it out down the stretch, if he live up to the hype he should push 30 HRs and a 300 BA
16) Zack Greinke, SP – thanks auto draft! I needed a pitcher and he’s coming around so I can’t complain too much
17) Richie Sexson, 1B – he’s a masher, if Sexson bounces back he fills a huge hole
18) Geoff Jenkins, OF – a little washed up but he’s lefty and plays in Coors Field East (Philly) so 30 HRs is likely even in a platoon
19) Mark DeRosa, 2B – I’ve never given DeRosa a second thought in my life prior to last night, I was desparate for a 2B and he should hit 290ish, with 10 HRs and a handful of steals, he’ll do as a band aide until I figure something else out
20) Wandy Rodriguez, SP – bit of a flier but he has a nice K rate and it’s that point of the draft
21) Chris Snyder, C – has some power, smidge of upside, OK #2 catcher this late
22) Erick Aybar, SS – high average multi-tool prospect, hopefully he grows up fast
23) Chris Capuano, SP – was great in 05 & 06, awful in 07, if he returns to form he could be my ace, if he repeats 2007 I wouldn’t feel bad kicking him to the curb

I need a lot more prep to put together a quality team for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship but this was a nice warm up with some interesting challenges.

Spray Charts for Fantasy Baseball from Graphical Player

One of the things I like most about Graphical Player so far are the spray charts they have for every batter. In fantasy baseball it’s important to distinguish between trends and flukes. For sleeper picks, rookies or possible breakout candidates with short track records, I’ve found the spray charts to be a helpful tool.

The spray charts for Graphical Player show dark lines for fly balls, gray for grounders, white circles for major league home runs and black circles for minor league homers. I believe the application for fantasy baseball is this – stay away from righties that only hit home runs to left field (see J.J. Hardy, Austin Kearns, Elijah Dukes). Anyone in the bigs can crush an inside pitch and once the scouting report is out look for a lot fewer. I’m much less worried about lefties because most pitchers are righty so balls will still tend to break in making it a little more difficult to avoid inside mistakes (see Jeremy Hermida, Jason Kubel and Hideki Matsui).

On the other hand I have a lot of confidence in baseball players that have a wide distribution in their spray chart home runs (see Brandon Philips pictured above, Nick Markakis and David Wright). These spray charts tell me that these guys know how to hit, making them safe fantasy baseball players that may display more upside this season. For a batter to hit the ball to all fields with power they will need some combination of the following – early pitch recognition which allows for the proper body adjustments, the ability to hit lefties and righties well or ungodly strength. Either way they are more likely to maintain or improve upon last year’s fantasy baseball stats because we can infer that they have real baseball skills. I wouldn’t take Philips or Markakis in the first round (yet) but if you have an opportunity, I think you’re safe grabbing them up to a half round early for your 2008 fantasy baseball team.

Baseball Forecaster – Early Bird Fantasy Baseball Resource

I received my annual Baseball Forecaster last week and have started going through it. It has a log of detailed fantasy baseball info and projections for 2008. I like their Prospects section which includes top prospects as well as major league equivalent stats. If you’re in deeper fantasy baseball leagues these two sections can go a long way to scouting some deeper picks. You can check out more about the Baseball Forecaster and Ron Shandler at BaseballHQ.com.

BaseballHQ.com also offers a free newsletter and podcast which is updated weekly throughout the season. I find the podcast to be completely indispensable for fantasy baseball. I appreciate the fact that they dedicate a segment to each podcast to provide an overview of one of their sabermetric stats. I’m still fairly new to sabermetrics in fantasy baseball but I’m getting a great education from Baseball Forecaster and BaseballHQ.com’s resources.

Order Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster 2009 on Amazon

Graphical Player – Key Fantasy Baseball Guide

The folks that write Heater Magazine just starter shipping their fantasy baseball guide, Graphical Player 2008. I loved Heater and used it extensively last year, it was key in competing in the NFBC which is a brutally deep and competitive league.

This is the first time I’ve used Graphical Player but I have to say that at first glance I love it! It’s not for beginners but I highly recommend it for veteran fantasy baseball players that are looking for an edge to help get their game to the next level. I plan on posting several updates in the coming weeks as I uncover nuggets.

The first thing that jumped out at me was WOW – Weight on Winners, which is something that I’ve been curious about for years. Basically, it figures out which players contribute the most toward a team winning their fantasy league. Breakout players like Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Braun are no brainers because of the relatively low cost that they came out. Basically they simulated 10,000 12 team roto leagues and figured out the % that a player was on the winning team. Alex Rodriguez is you 2007 run away MVP appearing on the winning team 31% of the time.

But that’s not really surprising, you don’t need to visit BaseballHQ.com and purchase Graphical Player 2008 by John Burnson for $21.95 plus $5 for priority mail S&H to tell you that A-rod is a stud. The question is, how does WOW help us win our leagues in 2008?

One of my favorite players, Carl Crawford, tipped me off. Crawford got his 50 steals this year, hit slightly over .300 and swatted double digit home runs – typical Crawford year. However he only hit 11 HRs and I was hoping he’d start to establish more of a mid-20s level of performance or at least repeat high teens. I still love Crawford and am excited by the prospect that he might be available at a small discount. His WOW is 18 which is more than double the 8% average a player should have. So it begged the question, what other players are available at a discount or at least a reasonable fair market value that can significantly help my team win?

I decided to do a quick scan of all players with a 17 or higher WOW (more than double the average) who performed at or slightly below their previous 3 seasons in 2007. I did this for a couple of reasons – first, these players should be available at a reasonable price. Second, since we’re looking at a 4 year stretch they should have similar numbers in 2008. Third, since they have 4 years of a steady level of performance they would have a very good injury history. So I believe the result is a list of extremely safe players that will increase your odds of winning. Here are the initial ones that jumped out at me:

Carl Crawford

Ichiro Suzuki

Victor Martinez

Jose Reyes

Miguel Cabrera

Carlos Lee

Albert Pujols

I don’t think that you should draft Carlos Lee over Matt Holiday but what this does say is that if it’s between say, Derek Lee, Carlos Lee, Andruw Jones or Justin Morneau – Carlos Lee improves the chances of you winning your league more than the other guys. I also believe that Pujols is more likely to bounce back than A-rod is to maintain – and in a “down year” Pujols was still twice as likely to be on a winning team than the average player.

A Pair of Tolstoi T206s, Christmas Loot Breakdown

I won these 2 T206 baseball cards on eBay for under $100. I think that’s a great deal because I’ve paid as much for T206s with more common backs like Piedmont or Sweet Caporal. One report that I read estimates that common backs have an estimated population of 100-300 specimens so maybe Tolstois are something like 50-100. Even though they’re common players, Jake Pfeister and Rube Oldring, they’re probably worth sending to PSA in the future for grading. I still have to put the cards under the loop but initially they look like locks for a PSA 3 with a solid shot at a 4. The cards have corner rounding but it’s not too bad, the color looks great, minimal surface ware and no creasing. The cards are also well centered. I only have 1 Tolstoi before these two so this is a great addition to my collection of T206 baseball cards.

Get T206 Tolstoi baseball cards on eBay!

Wade Davis – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 5 of 5

Although Wade Davis is ranked #12 on Minor League Baseball’s Top 50 list, I still like Gio Gonzalez and Johnny Cueto to have more of a fantasy baseball impact in 2008. He did however average better than 9 Ks per 9 with 81 in 80 innings at AA last year and a low 3 ERA. His walk rate was OK with 51 in 158 at two levels. I’d like to see that a little lower, high walk rates can lead to big problems at the major league level.

On one hand the Rays system is jammed with prospects – David Price, Jacob McGee and now Garza, but outside of Kazmir and Shields there’s little blocking these guys from a major league job. In fact, Garza is already penciled into the number 3 spot. He seems like he has enough stuff to get a job out of spring training but may need some more seasoning in the minors. It might not be a bad idea for the Rays to use one of these guys out of the pen to protect their arms, not to mention the fact that they need help there too. If you let your imagination run wild long enough you might start to see one of these guys turn into the next Papelbon.

I don’t think Davis will light the world on fire but I like the chance for him to get an opportunity sooner than later. On an improving offense he could get some wins if he can stay in games. I think a mid 4 ERA, mid to high 1.3 WHIP and 7 Ks per nine is doable. Overall I think this makes Wade Davis a nice, dirt cheap, back of rotation and spot starter option in larger fantasy baseball formats and someone to monitor as a possible keeper in smaller 10 to 12 team leagues.

Find Wade Davis rookie cards and more on eBay!

Johnny Cueto – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 1 of 5
Wladimir Balentien – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 2 of 5
Gio Gonzalez – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 3 of 5
Eric Patterson – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 4 of 5

Eric Patterson – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 4 of 5

I think we’re past the point of considering Eric Patterson as an elite fantasy baseball prospect but given the steep fall off in talent at middle infield the Cubs second baseman could be useful in 2008. He’ll turn 25 this year so if he’s it’s put up or shut up time for Patterson and the Cubs. I like the fact that he’s a lefty, even if he looses some at bats against tough lefties he could still get close to 500 at bats over the course of the season along with some pinch running cameos.

He hit .297 with 14 HRs and 24 SBs in 2007 in 516 at bats in AA. In 2006 he hit .276 with 10 HRs and a whopping 46 SBs in two stops and 508 at bats. Two things I look for in young bats – the first, speed, even if his bat is slow to adjust he could swipe enough bags to help. Second, 30 is the magic number – 30 HRs, 30 SBs, 15/15, 10 of one 20 of the other – I don’t care how someone gets there but if you add home runs and steal and get to 30 you start to become real useful for most fantasy baseball teams.

If Eric Patterson lands a big league gig I think a range for 270-290 with 10-15 HRs and 20-30 SBs is realistic right away. Let’s take the low end, .270, 10 HRs, 20 SBs becomes a solid option in deeper fantasy baseball leagues and probably puts him in the top 20 for middle infielders. .290, 15 HRs and 30 steals moves him into an elite range gets him near the top 10 middle infielders and is a lock to be top 5 among second basemen.

Eric Patterson’s fantasy baseball appeal is as much a function of thin middle infield talent as it is Patterson’s skill set. Eric Patterson also has nice keeper potential as well, especially since his power seems to be creeping up a bit. Watch and see if he has a job when camp breaks. If he does I think he’s an every day starter in large formats and nice spot starter and insurance policy in smaller 10-12 team leagues.

Find Eric Patterson rookie cards and more on eBay!

Johnny Cueto – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 1 of 5
Wladimir Balentien – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 2 of 5
Gio Gonzalez – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 3 of 5
Wade Davis – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 5 of 5