Graphical Player – Key Fantasy Baseball Guide

The folks that write Heater Magazine just starter shipping their fantasy baseball guide, Graphical Player 2008. I loved Heater and used it extensively last year, it was key in competing in the NFBC which is a brutally deep and competitive league.

This is the first time I’ve used Graphical Player but I have to say that at first glance I love it! It’s not for beginners but I highly recommend it for veteran fantasy baseball players that are looking for an edge to help get their game to the next level. I plan on posting several updates in the coming weeks as I uncover nuggets.

The first thing that jumped out at me was WOW – Weight on Winners, which is something that I’ve been curious about for years. Basically, it figures out which players contribute the most toward a team winning their fantasy league. Breakout players like Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Braun are no brainers because of the relatively low cost that they came out. Basically they simulated 10,000 12 team roto leagues and figured out the % that a player was on the winning team. Alex Rodriguez is you 2007 run away MVP appearing on the winning team 31% of the time.

But that’s not really surprising, you don’t need to visit BaseballHQ.com and purchase Graphical Player 2008 by John Burnson for $21.95 plus $5 for priority mail S&H to tell you that A-rod is a stud. The question is, how does WOW help us win our leagues in 2008?

One of my favorite players, Carl Crawford, tipped me off. Crawford got his 50 steals this year, hit slightly over .300 and swatted double digit home runs – typical Crawford year. However he only hit 11 HRs and I was hoping he’d start to establish more of a mid-20s level of performance or at least repeat high teens. I still love Crawford and am excited by the prospect that he might be available at a small discount. His WOW is 18 which is more than double the 8% average a player should have. So it begged the question, what other players are available at a discount or at least a reasonable fair market value that can significantly help my team win?

I decided to do a quick scan of all players with a 17 or higher WOW (more than double the average) who performed at or slightly below their previous 3 seasons in 2007. I did this for a couple of reasons – first, these players should be available at a reasonable price. Second, since we’re looking at a 4 year stretch they should have similar numbers in 2008. Third, since they have 4 years of a steady level of performance they would have a very good injury history. So I believe the result is a list of extremely safe players that will increase your odds of winning. Here are the initial ones that jumped out at me:

Carl Crawford

Ichiro Suzuki

Victor Martinez

Jose Reyes

Miguel Cabrera

Carlos Lee

Albert Pujols

I don’t think that you should draft Carlos Lee over Matt Holiday but what this does say is that if it’s between say, Derek Lee, Carlos Lee, Andruw Jones or Justin Morneau – Carlos Lee improves the chances of you winning your league more than the other guys. I also believe that Pujols is more likely to bounce back than A-rod is to maintain – and in a “down year” Pujols was still twice as likely to be on a winning team than the average player.

A Pair of Tolstoi T206s, Christmas Loot Breakdown

I won these 2 T206 baseball cards on eBay for under $100. I think that’s a great deal because I’ve paid as much for T206s with more common backs like Piedmont or Sweet Caporal. One report that I read estimates that common backs have an estimated population of 100-300 specimens so maybe Tolstois are something like 50-100. Even though they’re common players, Jake Pfeister and Rube Oldring, they’re probably worth sending to PSA in the future for grading. I still have to put the cards under the loop but initially they look like locks for a PSA 3 with a solid shot at a 4. The cards have corner rounding but it’s not too bad, the color looks great, minimal surface ware and no creasing. The cards are also well centered. I only have 1 Tolstoi before these two so this is a great addition to my collection of T206 baseball cards.

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Wade Davis – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 5 of 5

Although Wade Davis is ranked #12 on Minor League Baseball’s Top 50 list, I still like Gio Gonzalez and Johnny Cueto to have more of a fantasy baseball impact in 2008. He did however average better than 9 Ks per 9 with 81 in 80 innings at AA last year and a low 3 ERA. His walk rate was OK with 51 in 158 at two levels. I’d like to see that a little lower, high walk rates can lead to big problems at the major league level.

On one hand the Rays system is jammed with prospects – David Price, Jacob McGee and now Garza, but outside of Kazmir and Shields there’s little blocking these guys from a major league job. In fact, Garza is already penciled into the number 3 spot. He seems like he has enough stuff to get a job out of spring training but may need some more seasoning in the minors. It might not be a bad idea for the Rays to use one of these guys out of the pen to protect their arms, not to mention the fact that they need help there too. If you let your imagination run wild long enough you might start to see one of these guys turn into the next Papelbon.

I don’t think Davis will light the world on fire but I like the chance for him to get an opportunity sooner than later. On an improving offense he could get some wins if he can stay in games. I think a mid 4 ERA, mid to high 1.3 WHIP and 7 Ks per nine is doable. Overall I think this makes Wade Davis a nice, dirt cheap, back of rotation and spot starter option in larger fantasy baseball formats and someone to monitor as a possible keeper in smaller 10 to 12 team leagues.

Find Wade Davis rookie cards and more on eBay!

Johnny Cueto – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 1 of 5
Wladimir Balentien – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 2 of 5
Gio Gonzalez – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 3 of 5
Eric Patterson – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 4 of 5

Eric Patterson – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 4 of 5

I think we’re past the point of considering Eric Patterson as an elite fantasy baseball prospect but given the steep fall off in talent at middle infield the Cubs second baseman could be useful in 2008. He’ll turn 25 this year so if he’s it’s put up or shut up time for Patterson and the Cubs. I like the fact that he’s a lefty, even if he looses some at bats against tough lefties he could still get close to 500 at bats over the course of the season along with some pinch running cameos.

He hit .297 with 14 HRs and 24 SBs in 2007 in 516 at bats in AA. In 2006 he hit .276 with 10 HRs and a whopping 46 SBs in two stops and 508 at bats. Two things I look for in young bats – the first, speed, even if his bat is slow to adjust he could swipe enough bags to help. Second, 30 is the magic number – 30 HRs, 30 SBs, 15/15, 10 of one 20 of the other – I don’t care how someone gets there but if you add home runs and steal and get to 30 you start to become real useful for most fantasy baseball teams.

If Eric Patterson lands a big league gig I think a range for 270-290 with 10-15 HRs and 20-30 SBs is realistic right away. Let’s take the low end, .270, 10 HRs, 20 SBs becomes a solid option in deeper fantasy baseball leagues and probably puts him in the top 20 for middle infielders. .290, 15 HRs and 30 steals moves him into an elite range gets him near the top 10 middle infielders and is a lock to be top 5 among second basemen.

Eric Patterson’s fantasy baseball appeal is as much a function of thin middle infield talent as it is Patterson’s skill set. Eric Patterson also has nice keeper potential as well, especially since his power seems to be creeping up a bit. Watch and see if he has a job when camp breaks. If he does I think he’s an every day starter in large formats and nice spot starter and insurance policy in smaller 10-12 team leagues.

Find Eric Patterson rookie cards and more on eBay!

Johnny Cueto – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 1 of 5
Wladimir Balentien – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 2 of 5
Gio Gonzalez – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 3 of 5
Wade Davis – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 5 of 5

Gio Gonzalez – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 3 of 5

Gio Gonzalez is one of my top picks to have a major impact in fantasy baseball in 2007 the way Tim Lincecum or Yovai Gallardo did last year. Make no mistake, Gio Gonzalez isn’t as good as Lincecum or Gallardo in the short term, long term or ever. He is however the most elite of the 5 deep sleepers that I’ll be covering in the series and Minor League Baseball has him ranked 24^th on their Top 50 list.

He threw 150 innings last year and 154.2 in 2006 both at AA. His base on balls went from 81 in 2006 down to 57 this last season and his Ks went from 166 to 185 in essentially the same amount of work. That’s roughly a 2.5 per 9 total improvement between both categories. His 11 Ks per 9 should maintain in the 8 K per 9 range once he finally gets a crack at the majors. Gonzalez also boasted a paltry .216 BA against last year.

He just turned 22 this fall and once he arrives will benefit from the White Sox bullpen. It appears that he has little else to prove in the minors so he’s one to watch in spring training. I’d expect something like a pace for 180 Ks, low to mid 4 ERA, low to mid 1.3 WHIP and 14-16 wins projected over the course of a 34 start 220 inning season. There’s no way they’ll let him throw that much during the regular season, especially since the Sox have realistic playoff potential. So look for Gonzalez to pitch out of the bullpen for a stretch at some point. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the rotation in April and would be shocked if he wasn’t up by June at the latest.

In 2008 I think Gio Gonzalez will be nice middle of the rotation player in larger fantasy baseball formats like the NFBC and in smaller 10 and 12 team formats he’ll make for a nice spot starter with solid keeper potential.

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Johnny Cueto – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 1 of 5
Wladimir Balentien – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 2 of 5
Eric Patterson – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 4 of 5
Wade Davis – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 5 of 5

Wladimir Balentien – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 2 of 5

Adam Jones has been considered the better Seattle outfield prospect but I’m not so sure – sometimes you just need to look at the numbers and forget about Jones’ pedigree and that many consider Wladimir Balentien “raw”. For starters he was named the Pacific Coast League rookie of the year – sounds pretty elite to me!

In 2006 Balentien hit 22 HRs with 14 SBs in 444 ABs and entered the season at 21 in AA. The downside is that he only hit .230 with 140 Ks – I guess that’s where the “raw” label comes in. Dating back to 2001 he’s always displayed 30 HR power projected over a 550-600 AB season with a high .290 BA and a useful number of steals.

At AAA in 2007 he cut the Ks down to 105 in 477 ABs and once again cracked .290 average – suggesting he learned something about hitting. PCL is widely considered a hitters league but the drop in Ks tells me he’s developing patience at the plate. Wladimir also hit 24 HRs and stole 15 bases.

I think he’ll get a shot in the bigs this year as he’ll turn 24 in July and has little else to prove in the minors. I would expect his average to struggling for a year or two while he adjusts but the 30 HR power isn’t going anywhere. Stolen bases are key when counting on rookies for fantasy contributions. Even if his power and other offensive numbers fall off sharply, 15 steals over the course of a full season makes him a useful player with very high value considering where you’d be able to pick him up. I’d expect something like a .250 BA, 25-30 HR and 12-18 steal type pace once he gets called with upside from there. Considering the fact that he should be available off the wire in most fantasy baseball leagues there could be some real value in 2008 with Wladimir Balentien.

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Johnny Cueto – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 1 of 5
Gio Gonzalez – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 3 of 5
Eric Patterson – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 4 of 5
Wade Davis – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 5 of 5

Baseball Card Storage Tips – Part 4 of 4, Crates

A nice sturdy plastic crate is essential for storing your cards long term. Of course if your baseball card collection is valuable enough a fire proof safe would be ideal. I found the crate pictured to the left at Office Max for something like $30. It’s air tight as it has a foam rubber ridge around the bottom of the lid and locking clamps on both sides. I wouldn’t trust it in a deep flood or fire but as protection from variations in humidity and temperature I think this is a great way to protect your baseball cards that won’t cost a lot either.

Baseball Card Storage Tips – Part 1 of 4, Sleeves
Baseball Card Storage Tips – Part 2 of 4, Toploaders
Baseball Card Storage Tips – Part 3 of 4, Boxes

More Baseball Card Display and Storage Tips

Johnny Cueto – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 1 of 5

This is the first installment covering 5 minor league baseball players that I think have a great chance to have an impact this year in fantasy baseball. I’m not sure if any of them will start the season in the bigs but eventually I think they’ll all make it. As such they’re probably only draftable in the deepest of fantasy leagues and guys to monitor in shallow leagues.

Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce have all of the limelight as far as Cincinnati Reds prospects are concerned but I think Cueto may actually have the best value this year. He struck out 170 in 161 innings last year which is better than the 9K/9 that I like and was 6th most in the minors – remember, K rates do translate well to the big leagues. His 3.07 ERA and 1.11 WHIP were also excellent.

His last stop was AAA where he struck out 77 in 61 innings with only 11 walks which was the best for both ratios in three separate stops in 2007. In other words, Cueto not only adjusted to the competition, he actually outperformed it. This sort of suggests that he may have been bored and under challenged at the lower levels.

It’s his 34 walks in 161 that most impresses me and suggests Cueto’s ready to shutdown major league bats. Some guys rack up big Ks with high 90s stuff which masks a lack of command and high walk rate – see Homer Bailey. It can sometimes take a little longer for these guys to develop. Cueto’s low walk rate suggests he knows how to pitch and not just throw – and for the record he does hit the mid-90s. He also gave up a fair number of hits which I actually view as a positive – it shows he knows how to pitch to contact. Plus numerous studies (go read Moneyball) show that pitchers have little control over their hit rate (and therefore ERA and WHIP), the addition of a major league infield could really benefit him.

MiLB.com has him ranked as the 47th best prospect in the minors but I like him to outperform that real soon. Johnny Cueto is someone to watch closely in spring training as I think he has a shot to win a job with the Reds. In deeper fantasy baseball leagues and keeper leagues you need to find a spot for Cueto sooner rather than later.

Wladimir Balentien – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 2 of 5
Gio Gonzalez – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 3 of 5
Eric Patterson – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 4 of 5
Wade Davis – Fantasy Baseball Minor League Sleepers, Part 5 of 5

Find Johnny Cueto baseball cards and other gear on eBay - Shop Now!

Carl Crawford Autographed Fleer Patchworks Cards – I Want Them!

Carl Crawford is one of my favorite players and does justice for my fantasy baseball teams every year. I came across the 2005 Fleer Patchworks cards last year and started to collect them. They come in gold, silver and copper versions – the gold cards are number to 49 and the other cards in progressively higher quantities. I really think many of the autographed baseball cards these days represent great value, usually under $20. Thanks to an alter email I setup on my eBay account I get pinged every time a new one goes up for auction. So far I have 7 of the 49 in the collection – if you come across any Carl Crawford autographed cards, drop me a line, I’d love to make an offer.

Shop for Carl Crawford baseball cards on eBay!

Baseball Card Storage Tips – Part 3 of 4, Boxes

Corrugated cardboard storage boxes are great for safely storing your baseball cards. They come in sizes that will accommodate a variety of quantities and are available for singles, toploaders and graded cards. Some people prefer the clear plastic cases as a way to store their cards, however I believe the cardboard does a much better job of cushioning the cards in the event of rough handling or an accident – say moving. With all of the breakthroughs in baseball card storage and preservation they may seem a bit crude but I believe the are highly effective, economical and readily available way to protect and preserve your cards.

Get card storage boxes for your baseball cards on eBay!

Baseball Card Storage Tips – Part 1 of 4, Sleeves
Baseball Card Storage Tips – Part 2 of 4, Toploaders
Baseball Card Storage Tips – Part 4 of 4, Crates

More Baseball Card Display and Storage Tips