Alfonso Soriano - Fantasy Baseball Star if Falling Off a Cliff

In this week's Great Fantasy Debate on the Fantasy Pros 911 I was the away team and had to explain why a second half bounce back was unlikely for former fantasy stud Alfonso Soriano. Even though it's apparent that the decline is on, I really thought this was great year to buy Soriano at a bit of a discount - add that to the list of things I got wrong heading into this year's fantasy baseball season.

Soriano is still a productive player but the speed seems gone. With even 20 stolen bases Alfonso Soriano would be a top 5 OF but now it looks like 10 may be his best case. Moreover, his batting average is horrid and expected batting average (xBA) barely cracks .250.

Read about my take on the decline of Alfonso Soriano at the Fantasy Pros 911 Great Fantasy Debate - and VOTE FOR GREG!!!

If you're a baseball card collector, pick up an autographed Alfonso Soriano baseball card on eBay!

Satchel: The Life and Times of an American Legend - New Book Available Now

I became a Satchel Paige fan after watching Ken Burns Baseball
this past winter on DVD. I love watching the series to learn about the old time players and the two that stand out the most to me are Walter Johnson and Satchel Paige.

Satchel played all over the country and internationally for Cuba, the Dominican Republic and Mexico. Toward the end of his career he would follow in Jackie Robinsons' footsteps and finally make the majors. The reason I'm a big Satchel Paige fan is that;
1) He may very well have been the greatest pitcher in baseball history - the fact that we'll never know for sure only adds to the mystery
2) Satchel did it with style - not only was he reported to throw 14 pitches but they all had clever, intimidating and very cool names - Midnight Creeper, Midnight Rider, Bee Ball, 4 Day Creeper, Long Tom, the Barber and the feared Trouble Ball (I have no idea what the Trouble Ball was but I'll assume it was aptly named

Recently I found a new biography on Satchel Paige on Amazon - Satchel: The Life and Times of an American Legend. I've promptly added the book to my wish list and will have to write a review once I get a chance to complete it.

In the mean time you can pick up a copy of the new Satchel Paige biography, Satchel: The Life and Times of an American Legend on Amazon.com today - click here to get your copy of the book today.

The Great Fantasy Baseball Debate Update

While my record has sank to 3-3 in the Great Fantasy Debate I think I've cranked out some of my better posts recently. It's been tough to invest a ton of time in it with fantasy baseball season in full swing but I think I'm still a contender to win the contest.

Here are summaries with links to my last 3 posts;

Week 7
We were asked to come up with our all time baseball top 10 list. Keeping in line with a modest fantasy slant I went with a top 10 'never was' list. It included Negro League greats like Satchel Paige, other international players and even some fictitious ones like the Bad New Bears Kelly Leak and Sid Finch. This may have been the most fun I've ever had writing a baseball blog post. Maybe I'll come back to it in the offseason with a deeper dive on all 10 players.
http://www.thefantasybaseballhalloffame.com/greg-top-10-all-time-never-was-fantasy-baseball-players.html

Week 8
The question was to come up with my all time fantasy baseball team - I can't help but think that my all time never was team from week 7 had some inspiration. I took the approach of career stats rather than 1 season wonders which many other writers did.
http://www.thefantasybaseballhalloffame.com/greg-all-time-fantasy-team.html


Week 9
If you're middle of the road or worse in your fantasy league how do you climb back into it? My advice is to play like you're already dead and go out and get the big-time underperformers now! David Ortiz, Joses Reyes, and to an extend Jake Peavey are the guys to roll the dice on.
http://fantasypros911.com/week-9-greg-marta-vs-joey-vanzo.html

Remember, VOTE FOR GREG!!!

You can also find autographed Satchel Paige baseball cards and memorabilia on eBay - click here!

Nick Markakis v Carlos Beltran - The Great Fantasy Baseball Debate Week #5

This week The Great Fantasy Debate gets a little more fun with a head to head comparison of two fantasy baseball outfield studs - Nick Markakis (pictured 2008 Allen & Ginter baseball card) and Carlos Beltran. Here's the question:

Home team, tell us why Carlos Beltran is the better Fantasy Baseball Player
Away Team, tell us why Nick Markakis is the better Fantasy Baseball Player

I have the Nick Markakis side and cite some fairly good points - Markakis is younger, hits for a higher average, bats in the three hole and Citi Field may be one of the best pitchers parks in baseball. I'm a Mets fan so this one was kind of tough. Truth be told I think Beltran is the better pick for this season but clearly Markakis is the pick in any keeper format.

I did implore a high batting average early strategy in both of my NFBC drafts this year and Markakis would be the better pick in that case.
NFBC Main Event draft results
NFBC Satellite draft results
The theory being that loading up on BA early lets you pick up some low BA guys later that have specific scoring categories that you need. It can be hard to tell what your fantasy baseball team may need after the first 10 rounds or so and maximizing batting average early on creates a lot of flexibility.

Click here to vote for Greg in this Week's Great Fantasy Debate.

Remember to pick up a Nick Markakis autographed baseball card on eBay!

Contract Year Players in Fantasy Baseball - The Great Fantasy Baseball Debate Week #4

This week brings a bye week for me in the Great Fantasy Debate. I'm off to a 2-1 start with a shocking loss last week. Since I'm not going head to head this week I tried to be somewhat objective in my analysis of this week's question regarding the performance of fantasy baseball players in contract years (see insert of contract year poster child Adrian Beltre on a Topps Heritage baseball card).

The debate over whether or not the contract year for a player is worth looking at prior to the draft has gone on for the last 5-10 years, pro side (first team listed) please tell us why it is important to look at and back up your answer with stats the contract year.

My basic take is that statistically they have not proven that contract years impact performance. However, if you have someone a little iffy (lazy, injury prone, unfocused, off the field problems, etc.) then the contract year factor is worth taking a look at. http://fantasypros911.com/greg-marta-straddles-the-fence.html

Also, here's something pretty official looking from Springer Link that show contract years don't bump performance statistically but does show a uniform decline in seasons following the contract year - interesting. http://www.springerlink.com/content/p3p2230560605065/

Contract years won't affect the fantasy baseball performance of stars like Albert Pujols get an autographed Pujols baseball card for your collection.

Drafting Pitchers Early in Fantasy Baseball - The Great Fantasy Baseball Debate Week #3

If his name isn't Johan Santana I'm not interested in starting pitchers in fantasy baseball. Here's the week 3 topic for The Great Fantasy Debate:

Is drafting a number one starter early (first five rounds) still a good strategy to follow?

I basically pointed out that hitting is much more stable and a smarter early investment in fantasy baseball drafts. Secondly, it's easy to play matchups and rotate 2 start pitchers. Third, premium closers are even more valuable than they used to be. And finally, Johan Santana is the last ace in fantasy baseball.

Fantasy baseball really took off in the 90s with the advent of Al Gore's interweb. Those were the days of Clemens, Pedro, Randy Johnson, Maddux, Schilling, etc. Ace's abounded and snatching a steady year in year out stud pitcher made a ton of sense. However, as we approach the turn of this decade Johan Santana is the only pitcher left that provides this level of consistency.

Check out my article at the Fantasy Pros 911 and remember, Vote For Greg!

You can also pick up a Johan Santana baseball card and other Met gear on eBay - click here!

NFBC FAAB Results Through 2 Weeks

I've been pretty aggressive in my FAAB bidding in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Main Event (New York 6) . I drafted heavy pitching with Santana and Lincecum so I've felt I've a major need for some depth for my offense and the back of my rotation - click here to see my NFBC draft results.

Week #1
Dallas Braden $72 with a runner up of $31, the top 3 other leagues $32, $24, $20 - I paid a nice premium for Braden but his minor league numbers are solid and I trust Billy Beane - he's uncovered Cy Young caliber pitchers like Zito, Haren, Hundon, Mulder, etc. and flipped them just in time. Braden has had 2 quality starts so far and may work his way from spot starter to mid-fantasy baseball rotation.

Marcus Thames $128 with a runner up of $76, the top 3 other leagues were$109, $87, $77 - I listened to 3 straight podcasts that all touted Marcus Thames as a cheap 25 HR OF that should be rostered in ALL moderately deep leagues. Then, 2 days later, Sheffield got cut! I really wanted depth for my OF and figure Thames will snag 50-100 more ABs and should get around 30 HRs. With Milton Bradley missing time this week and Nady apparently blowing out his elbow this looks like a good move. Given the runner up and other top bids $128 was a great FAAB bid.

Week #2
Brandon Wood New York 6 $93 with a runner up of $80, other leagues $16 and $11 - (pictured Bowman Chrome Auto Baseball Card) I'm a huge believer in Brandon Wood and now have him in all leagues. I had him targeted on draft day and was stoked to see him get cut week 1. The fact that the Angels sent him down is actually a good sign - says they want to stop jerking him around and the next time he comes up it's for good. When he does I expect him to hit around .270 with a pace of 35 HRs and 10 SBs - these are crazy stud like numbers for someone with SS and 3B eligibility. Through 4 games in AAA he's batting .333 with 3 HRs. Help is coming!!!

Click here to pick up a Brandon Wood baseball card on eBay!