Minor League Fantasy Baseball Prospects from Heater Magazine

Here are some big time fantasy baseball players to watch that I picked out of Heater Magazine:

Chris Davis, 1B, Tex – the move of Blalock to first base blocks him but he just got promoted to AAA, features high average and 30+ HR power

Chase Headley, OF/3B, SD – should get called any day now, has rebounded from slow start, I think he could immediately hit 285 with 25-30 HR type power, given SDs weak offense he should bat high in the order giving him tons of run and RBI opportunities

Colby Rasmus, OF, Stl – has struggled to adjust to AAA but is finally heating up, may be down for a month or 2 but his early struggles mean buy low, might not have a big impact until next year but I think the price is right

David Price, SP, TB – (featured left in Bowman Gold rookie baseball card) sort of like the Colby Rasmus of pitchers, minor arm issues set him back a couple of month, he should rise quickly and could help in a stretch run, he’s an elite prospect and very polished pitcher, for all of the Kershaw hype I think Price will be the better big league pitcher late this year and through all of next – and again the price is right

Fantasy Baseball Trades

I made a couple of trades on my fantasy baseball league. Bare in mind that we enforce a salary cap throughout the season.

Trade #1

Sent
Edinson Volquez, SP $2 – I believe in this guy a lot but he has a huge walk rate an unsustainable HR rate, he’ll normalize a little bit the rest of the way making him a little more replaceable than he may appear at first – I was dying to sell high on this guy

Ryan Theriot, SS $10 – I believe in him too but would have had to cut him anyway to make room for Young

Got
Michael Young, SS $17 (shown left, Diamond Cuts auto baseball card) – As a first place team I traded high on some guys to buy a little low on a proven veternan, Young will be my middle infielder along with BJ Upton and Jimmy Rollins, I like his ability to hit over 300 and push 90 RBIs

Trade #2

Sent
Eric Gane, RP $1 – glad to get rid of him

Johny Cueto, SP $1 – I really love this guy but wanted a little more stability in the rotation to make up for the loss of Edinson Volquez

Got
John Maine, SP $1 – got pounded for me the other day but I like his ability to maintain top 30 status among starting pitchers, this fantasy baseball league has 10 teams which I think makes Maine a solid #4 starter or serviceable #3 – goes a long way to making up for the loss of Volquez

Jeff Keppinger – 1 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper That’s Paying Off

Jeff Keppinger (shown left in this Upper Deck 2008 Series One baseball card) was supposed to be a short term band aide to prop up my middle infield. The injury to Alex Gonzalez opened the door for Keppinger to start the season as the Cincinnati Red’s starting short stop. In 2 leagues I drafted him as a bridge to Akinori Iwamura being able to qualify at middle infield.

He doesn’t offer a lot of home runs or stolen bases but he hit better than .330 at 4 minor league stints of 127 ABs or more and .332 in over 200 ABs last year in the big leagues. My thinking was that he was a filler that wouldn’t hurt. It turns our Gonzalez is out for another month and Keppinger has been playing great out of the 2 hole - .329 BA. I could see him going wire to wire for my fantasy baseball teams and challenge for a batting title with around 100 runs – my band aide looks like the solution. Just goes to show that some fantasy baseball sleepers pay off, just impossible to tell which ones.

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Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft Results

Here are the results for my fantasy baseball keeper league draft. It’s a 5x5, 10 team head to head fantasy baseball league with a $312 salary cap and 5 keepers. We enforce a cap on undrafted players throughout the season and increase the cap by $20 to $332 once the draft is over. This is our league’s 11^th year with the same group of owners and I’m the defending champion which is my 2^nd in that time.

A key tool that I used this year was Heater Magazine’s latest spring training issue. They’ve been publishing baseball statistics for every player twice a week and it was a great reference guide to use during my draft.

Keepers

$1 Ryan Braun, 3B – at $1 one of the best keepers in the history of the league

$9 BJ Upton, 2B – I expect his batting average to drop but the 30/30 potential at second is awesome

$11 Alex Rios, OF – I firmly believe Rios is over-hyped but $11 for a 5 category outfielder is great

$6 Russell Martin, C – arguably the best catcher in fantasy baseball, I had to trade to get him – Cole Hamels at $12 and Hunter Pence at $1, steep price but I think it was worth it

$1 Tim Lincecum, P – he may transcend to being a top 10 pitcher this year, is sure to be top 5 in Ks

The Draft

$52 Alex Rodriguez, 3B – (seen above in rookie baseball card) threw out a price enforcement bid and heard crickets, so I got “stuck”, Wright went for $57 and Miguel Cabrera $59 – didn’t really want him darn right I love Arod at a discount

$38 Jimmy Rollins, SS – 3^rd year in a row and carried me to a championship last year, ultimately 5 players went for $50+ with another dozen $40+, $38 for Jroll is an extreme discount

$39 Albert Pujols, 1B – an injury risk for sure but I think it’s over played, I’ll take a chance on the best hitter at a bargain

$45 Carl Crawford, OF – love Crawford, 50+ SB lock, 300+ BA, emerging power, could be an MVP

$56 Matt Holiday, OF – this hurt but given the cost of elite players I had to stay in, makes up for the Jroll and Pujols discounts

$24 Chris Young, OF – since I blew a ton of cash early it took about 2 hours to make this pick, people are scared off by the batting average but I think he can get it up to 250-260, on top of that he’s 30/30 with a shot at 35+ HRs

$1 Gil Meche, SP – didn’t really want him but nice veteran pitcher on an improving team and the price was right

$14 Matt Kemp, OF – has 300+ BA potential to make up for Young and could go 25/25, he fills in at utility

$1 Andy Sonnanstine, SP – I love this guy, beat the Yankees last night, K rate isn’t great but nice control artist in the Slowey mold

$1 Zack Greinke, SP – really came around in the rotation last year and improved every start this spring, didn’t have him in the lineup this week but he beat the Tigers on the road, could be a real stud

$1 Kevin Slowey, SP – he’s going to have a great year, he really knows how to pitch and he gets more Ks than people realize, I could see mid-3 ERA, sub-1.2 WHIP, 150-170 Ks and 15 wins

$1 Shaun Marcum, SP – late bloomer was solid in the rotation last year, nice K rate, really like him to take a big step forward

$1 Eric Gagne, RP – love cheap $1 closers and don’t really care about the names if they have the job

$3 BJ Ryan, RP – looks like he’ll come back by late April and could be a top 10 closer again

$1 Brian Wilson, RP – mark my words – 40 saves – that’s right, San Fran has to win rough 70 games and every one is sure to be close, if he can keep the job 40 is a lock, I’m the only one on earth that thinks this but that doesn’t mean I’m wrong

$1 Troy Percival, RP – the price is right, apparently has a little tread left on the tires

$1 Jeff Keppinger, SS – this got some laughs but if he can keep the job he could hit 330+ and go 10/10 with a ton of runs out of the 2 hole

$1 Akinori Iwamura, 3B – the idea is to slide him to MI in place of Keppinger once he qualifies at 2B, after one week I’m not so sure and already dropped him for Edinson Volquez

$1 Manny Parra, SP – love him but already dropped to get Johnny Cueto, the move has already paid off huge

$1 Wandy Rodriguez, SP – could be great if I can remember to only start him at home, great K rate – could be top 10 in Ks this year

National Fantasy Baseball Championship Draft Results – Part 4 of 4

21) Wandy Rodriguez, SP – Love is K rate and he is a fully mature pitcher who should be up for a peak season this year, should be a solid #5 starter in our rotation

22) John Patterson, SP – Opening Day starter for the Nats is out of work, we’re still hanging onto him, if he can build up arm strength he has a solid chance to return to form, if that happens his upside would be top 12 round value, I’d be very happy with 100+ innings of league average stuff

23) Andy Sonnanstine, SP – Poor man’s Slowey just got named #3 starter for the Rays, should help ERA and WHIP and can get a decent win total, low K total dropped him this far but that shouldn’t be a problem for us

24) Jair Jurrjens, SP – Looks like he’ll win the 5^th spot in Atlanta, more of a power sinker pitcher he won’t K a ton but we’re hoping for 200 innings of league average stuff, he is having a great spring so there’s real upside here – this ends our run of 5 straight pitchers

25) David Ross, C – Has 25 home run power at an incredibly thin position but would be lucky to bat .220, yet another reason that we grabbed Young and Helton early, in a perfect world he rides the pine all year but in a league that mandates 2 starting catchers he’ll probably need to fill in from time to time and we’ll take the power, great value in round 25 for a #3 catcher

26) Jeff Keppinger, SS – Should have the starting gig for the first couple of weeks of the season while Alex Gonzalez works his way back, has super high 330+ BA but does little else, he’s basically a bridge until Iwamura qualifies at 2B and we’ll soak up as much batting average goodness as we can

27) Gio Gonzalez, SP – My #1 pre-season rookie pitcher, he got sent back down but is blocked by a slew of injury riddled starters with the big club, I expect him by mid-May and think he’ll give us some great Ks as a spot starter

28) John Danks, SP – Pitched well at times last year and has a nice K rate, ERA and WHIP are a little high but he’s having a nice spring and should start day 1, he might ultimately only be a spot starter but has nice upside as well

29) Wladimir Balentien, OF – My #1 rookie outfielder this year, doesn’t have the long-term ceiling of Maybin or Rasmus but at 24 he’s filled out and ready to go right now, he’s blocked directly or indirectly by Brad Wilkerson (hasn’t manage 400 at bats or a 240+ batting average since 2004), Jose Vidro (the softest bat perhaps ever at DH) and Ritchie Sexson (who looks like he no longer possesses major league skills), I expect Wladimir to have a full time gig by early May, projected over a full season I expect an immediate rate of production of 275-285 BA, 25-30 HRs, 12-18 SBs, we need outfield depth and I think he’s a real key for us

30) Alejandro De Aza (shown in his Allen and Ginter 2007 rookie baseball card), OF – this may prove to be my greatest fantasy pick either, contrary to the hype Maybin is headed down to the farm and may stay there most of the season, De Aza is also leading the Marlins in slugging % this spring which is the one pre-season stat that can carry over, he’s got 40-50 SB potential which is exactly where we needed a little help, there’s a shot that our 30^th round pick is a wire to wire starter for us

National Fantasy Baseball Championship Draft Results – Part 3 of 4

11) Hank Blalock, 3B – Persistent injuries have robbed him of his production in recent years, the latest surgery was believed to be a permanent fix, he came back last year to absolutely crush the ball and will bat in the heart of the order

12) Oliver Perez, SP – Incredible #3 for our rotation, 170+ Ks, 15 Wins, contract year, should have good ERA and WHiP, really nice value for the production

13) J.R. Towels (featured in the Bowman Heritage baseball card), C – This is the time of the draft to start taking some calculated risks, I don’t like young bats but Towels speed mitigates a lot of risk, a downside of 260, 8 HRs and 7 SBs is actually OK in this slot, remember we have to start 2 catchers, his upside is Russell Martin

14) Brian Wilson, RP – a risky pick at closer? please… we had Brian Fuentes last year, he was an All Star closer and wasn’t even his team’s closer, Wilson pitched well in the role last year and the San Fran opportunities should be plentiful, that’s right – tons of save chances, most people think they’ll stink and therefore wont get save chances, KC led the league in save opportunities on 2006 and they were putrid, SF has great pitching and although they may struggle to win 70 games they’ll all be close

15) Josh Fields, 3B/OF – We needed home runs in our outfield and he fell a full round below is lowest pick in the latest round of ADP reports, he always showed 25 SB skills in the minors so despite only stealing one base last year I think he could bounce back, I think 25-35 HRs and 8-15 SBs are realistic, Crede may push Fields to the minors for a few weeks but he’ll be back

16) Akinori Iwamura, 2B/3B – This is one of my favorite picks in the whole draft, doesn’t qualify at 2B yet but give him 2 weeks and he’s our middle infielder, I think 285 BA, 15/15 is doable and he’s leading off for a pretty solid offense so 100+ runs is in reach, nice steady 4 category contribution from MI this late in the draft is great, Phillips/Young/Iwamura should be the best middle infield in the league

17) Jack Cust, OF – “poor man’s Adam Dunn” is another Matthew Berry special, exactly why we invested in Helton and Young in the first 10 rounds, Cust may only hit 240 but 30-35 HRs is possible

18) Mike Jacobs, 1B – We had 2 needs over the past several picks – 1) HRs, 2) a 1B to backup Helton – witness the Fields/Cust/Jacobs run, Jacobs could still live up to his 290 BA, 30+ HR potential

19) Kevin Slowey, SP – The only real knock on Slowey is his lack of Ks, personally I think he’ll be good for 6-7/9 and with Santana/Webb/Perez we frankly don’t need them, I expect very good ERA and WHIP and a reasonable win total, 12-15, great complimentary mid-rotation piece for us

20) Kurt Suzuki, C – I don’t think Suzuki is anything special but we need 2 catchers and he should have little competition for ABs, he could reach double digit home runs and a BA of 255-265 is reasonable for a #2 catcher in this format

National Fantasy Baseball Championship Draft Results – Part 2 of 4

1) Johan Santana, SP – My first choice at this pick, I had him 3 overall as did Corey Schwartz’s projections on the Fantasy 411, great value

2) Brandon Phillips, 2B – I’m not sure why he’s not a top 10 player right now, David Wright numbers at a vastly thinner position, lock for top 10 next year and maybe top 5 – bottom line is I fell like we have 2 top 10 players out of the 14 hole, Phillips’ home run spray chart in Graphical Player sold me that he’s for real

3) Adam Dunn, OF – The last train to 40homerunville is the Adam Dunn express, punch my ticket I love it, chips in 6-9 stolen bases for style points

4) Brandon Webb, SP – In my mind the #2 pitcher in fantasy baseball, improved on ERA, WHIP and Ks 3 (or maybe 4) straight years, arguably a better season last year after his Cy Young in 2006 – we might have the 2 best pitchers in fantasy baseball

5) Michael Young, SS – I don’t love Michael Young because his counting stats are light but he’s a lock to hit over 300 and we need some BA to cover for Dunn, plus pair him with Phillips and that’s an awesome middle infield in NFBC format

6) Jeff Francoeur, OF – HRs dropped last year and doubles jumped, a workout program in the off season spells rebound, Matthew Berry of ESPN Fantasy Focus Baseball broke that news and on further investigation I drank the Kool-Aide

7) Juan Pierre, OF – His ADP was 90, we got him at 104, I think anytime in the 5^th round (60-75) you could make a great case for locking in 50+ SBs, a 290 BA in the OF, I think he was massively undervalued at 90 and at 104 it’s like having 2 5^th round picks, we dug a hole with grabbing starting pitching and this makes up for the Webb pick in one move – the league let us up off the mat on this one and we’re going to make them pay

8) Todd Helton, 1B – The only pick in the first 10 that was out of need more than love, we pictured pitchers here but the miracle of Santana/Webb means we need more bats, Helton isn’t what he was but he is what he is, 320 BA, 20 HR, 90/90 – really nice counting stats and high BA – we’ll use that later in the end game with some mashers, plus we needed a corner infielder

9) Edwin Encarnacion, 3B – I’ve always liked this kid but as his ADP crept up I got less interested, the Fantasy 411 sold him big time on their preview show so I jumped back on the bandwagon, at worse he has power with some steals so it works

10) Brad Lidge, RP – Based on everything I read his knee injury is nothing to worry about – just dropped him a round, cover up the name and look at last year’s stats and this guy is money on a contending team, he essentially has no competition at closer (Gordon? please) this was another one from Schwartz at the 411