Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Kev Hute Breaks Down Detroit at San Fran Game 3

Kev Hute has a breakdown of tonight’s baseball showdown between the Giants and Tigers

I said Detroit would bounce back from that game 1 coaching blunder when Jim Leyland pulled Justin Verlander after just 96 pitches and 6 innings. The timing in that decision was terrible since Verlander clearly wanted to go out for the 7th, and he felt as though he was just getting settled in. Leyland put in Freddy Dolsi for a perfect 7th, and let him start the 8th where Dolsi gave up two leadoff hits. Then Leyland brings in Fernando Rodney, for his big return to the set-up role, once two guys are already on base. It doesn’t make sense to me. I’m a firm believer in not messing with the bull pen’s psyche, as they are the only guys who affect the game a great deal over a tight span of 1 or 2 innings. 1/3 inning to them is a lot different than 1/3 inning to a starting pitcher. Though it is uncharacteristic for me to say this, you can give Jim Leyland the blame for that one.

As a result, Detroit won game 2 when K-ROG looked like his old self for the 5th time in a row. He’s allowed only 4 earned runs in his last 5 starts. I’m interested to see what kind of pace the Tigers can maintain with all that beef in their line-up.

Today the game’s key stats are as follows:

- The value is with Detroit (-1.5/-120) as Gallaraga is hot, and Barry Zito is Barry Zito.
- SF is 4-9 in game 3’s after a loss
- Armando Galarraga is 3-0, 1.96, 1.04 in day starts this year, and Zito is 1-4, 7.88, 2.08
- Road team has won 10 of 16 games that Jerry Crawford has called, including 5 of the last 6
- Crawford also favors the UNDER frequently
- The Tigers record is 8-2 when Armando Galarraga pitches.
- Clear and calm weather conditions

I really like Detroit SU at -154 in this game even more so than the run line.

By: Kevin Hute

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